Group	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
Winner	PSG	Bayern	ManC	Juve	Liverpool	Barca	Leipzig	Valencia
Runner-up	Real	Tottenham	Atalanta	Atletico	Napoli	BVB	Lyon	Chelsea

• Runners-up are matched with group winners
• No matches allowed between teams from same association
• No matches allowed between teams from same group

These rules lead to 2002 possible results of the draw in 2019. Intuitive: Fair draw should give each result a chance of 1/2002 = 0.0004995 = 0.04995%.
UEFA's draw mechanism is quite complicated, for a description see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270. At first glance, it appears to be fair, however: closer inspection shows that probabilities of UEFA's draw mechanism are slightly different, ranging from 0.036572% (approx. 1/2734) to 0.063349% (approx. 1/1579), corresponding to relative differences from -26.784% to 26.825%. Tableau with the smallest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/2734) is

Real vs. ManC Napoli vs. Leipzig

Tottenham vs. Valencia BVB vs. Juve

Atalanta vs. Barca Lyon vs. Liverpool

Atletico vs. Bayern Chelsea vs. PSG

Tableau with the highest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/1579) is

Real vs. Juve Napoli vs. Bayern

Tottenham vs. Valencia BVB vs. PSG

Atalanta vs. Liverpool Lyon vs. ManC

Atletico vs. Leipzig Chelsea vs. Barca

The draw procedure employed by UEFA also leads to the probabilities of pairwise matches being slightly different from their values under a perfectly fair draw.

Group	Team	Draw	Opponents ranked by decreasing probability
			Most probable	2nd most	3rd most	4th most	5th most	6th most	7th most
A	PSG	Fair	Chelsea 18.2817	Atletico 17.9321	Tottenham 17.3327	BVB 16.6833	Atalanta 14.8851	Napoli 14.8851
		UEFA	Atletico 18.4254	Chelsea 18.1785	Tottenham 17.3331	BVB 16.9852	Atalanta 14.5389	Napoli 14.5389
	Real	Fair	Liverpool 21.8781	ManC 21.8781	Juve 20.8791	Bayern 18.0819	Leipzig 17.2827
		UEFA	Liverpool 21.5779	ManC 21.5779	Juve 21.1469	Bayern 18.0844	Leipzig 17.6128
B	Bayern	Fair	Atletico 18.8811	Chelsea 18.5814	Real 18.0819	Atalanta 15.0849	Napoli 15.0849	Lyon 14.2857
		UEFA	Chelsea 18.9008	Atletico 18.6929	Real 18.0844	Atalanta 15.0330	Napoli 15.0330	Lyon 14.2559
	Tottenham	Fair	Valencia 22.6773	Barca 22.3277	Juve 20.6294	PSG 17.3327	Leipzig 17.0330
		UEFA	Valencia 22.6079	Barca 22.0037	Juve 20.7197	Leipzig 17.3357	PSG 17.3331
C	ManC	Fair	Atletico 22.6274	Real 21.8781	BVB 20.7792	Napoli 17.6823	Lyon 17.0330
		UEFA	Atletico 22.3991	Real 21.5779	BVB 20.6167	Napoli 18.4382	Lyon 16.9681
	Atalanta	Fair	Valencia 18.9810	Barca 18.5814	Liverpool 17.6823	Bayern 15.0849	PSG 14.8851	Leipzig 14.7852
		UEFA	Valencia 18.9406	Barca 18.5539	Liverpool 18.4382	Bayern 15.0330	PSG 14.5389	Leipzig 14.4954
D	Juve	Fair	Chelsea 21.5784	Real 20.8791	Tottenham 20.6294	BVB 20.1798	Lyon 16.7333
		UEFA	Chelsea 21.6666	Real 21.1469	Tottenham 20.7197	BVB 20.0116	Lyon 16.4551
	Atletico	Fair	Liverpool 22.6274	ManC 22.6274	Bayern 18.8811	Leipzig 17.9321	PSG 17.9321
		UEFA	Liverpool 22.3991	ManC 22.3991	Bayern 18.6929	PSG 18.4254	Leipzig 18.0836
E	Liverpool	Fair	Atletico 22.6274	Real 21.8781	BVB 20.7792	Atalanta 17.6823	Lyon 17.0330
		UEFA	Atletico 22.3991	Real 21.5779	BVB 20.6167	Atalanta 18.4382	Lyon 16.9681
	Napoli	Fair	Valencia 18.9810	Barca 18.5814	ManC 17.6823	Bayern 15.0849	PSG 14.8851	Leipzig 14.7852
		UEFA	Valencia 18.9406	Barca 18.5539	ManC 18.4382	Bayern 15.0330	PSG 14.5389	Leipzig 14.4954
F	Barca	Fair	Chelsea 23.3766	Tottenham 22.3277	Atalanta 18.5814	Napoli 18.5814	Lyon 17.1329
		UEFA	Chelsea 23.2769	Tottenham 22.0037	Atalanta 18.5539	Napoli 18.5539	Lyon 17.6116
	BVB	Fair	Valencia 21.5784	Liverpool 20.7792	ManC 20.7792	Juve 20.1798	PSG 16.6833
		UEFA	Valencia 21.7697	Liverpool 20.6167	ManC 20.6167	Juve 20.0116	PSG 16.9852
G	Leipzig	Fair	Chelsea 18.1818	Atletico 17.9321	Real 17.2827	Tottenham 17.0330	Atalanta 14.7852	Napoli 14.7852
		UEFA	Atletico 18.0836	Chelsea 17.9772	Real 17.6128	Tottenham 17.3357	Atalanta 14.4954	Napoli 14.4954
	Lyon	Fair	Valencia 17.7822	Barca 17.1329	Liverpool 17.0330	ManC 17.0330	Juve 16.7333	Bayern 14.2857
		UEFA	Valencia 17.7411	Barca 17.6116	Liverpool 16.9681	ManC 16.9681	Juve 16.4551	Bayern 14.2559
H	Valencia	Fair	Tottenham 22.6773	BVB 21.5784	Atalanta 18.9810	Napoli 18.9810	Lyon 17.7822
		UEFA	Tottenham 22.6079	BVB 21.7697	Atalanta 18.9406	Napoli 18.9406	Lyon 17.7411
	Chelsea	Fair	Barca 23.3766	Juve 21.5784	Bayern 18.5814	PSG 18.2817	Leipzig 18.1818
		UEFA	Barca 23.2769	Juve 21.6666	Bayern 18.9008	PSG 18.1785	Leipzig 17.9772

Teams get the following awards for reaching certain stages:

• reaching quarter-final is awarded with EUR 10.5 million
• reaching semi-final is awarded with additional EUR 12 million
• reaching final is awarded with additional EUR 15 million
• winning trophy is awarded with additional EUR 7.5 million (including award for UEFA Super Cup qualification)

Under a simple model (for details, see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270), with strengths being determined by weighted averages of team's UEFA coefficients of the last three years, this leads to the following expected payoffs and probabilities of reaching certain stages:

Group	Team	Strength	Draw	Probablity of reaching ... (in percent)				Exp. Payoff (EUR)
				quarter-final	semi-final	final	trophy
A	PSG	8	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	57.4808 57.3995 -0.0813	26.7459 26.6999 -0.0460	11.4362 11.4143 -0.0219	5.4308 5.4202 -0.0107	11,367,745.14 11,349,593.13 -18,152.02
	Real	9.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	49.0235 49.1776 0.1541	25.2112 25.2778 0.0667	12.0474 12.0752 0.0279	5.9340 5.9472 0.0132	10,424,964.46 10,454,318.63 29,354.17
B	Bayern	14	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	69.5796 69.5150 -0.0646	42.3730 42.3243 -0.0487	24.4290 24.3979 -0.0310	12.6771 12.6606 -0.0165	17,005,743.42 16,987,218.04 -18,525.38
	Tottenham	9.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	56.3819 56.5054 0.1235	28.7432 28.7945 0.0513	13.5974 13.6183 0.0210	6.6869 6.6968 0.0099	11,910,403.09 11,933,411.14 23,008.05
C	ManC	12.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	68.3611 68.3795 0.0184	39.5593 39.5588 -0.0005	21.5030 21.4993 -0.0037	10.9841 10.9817 -0.0024	15,974,288.64 15,975,421.66 1,133.02
	Atalanta	1	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	12.9493 12.8481 -0.1011	1.3483 1.3383 -0.0100	0.1234 0.1226 -0.0009	0.0186 0.0185 -0.0001	1,541,377.46 1,529,420.56 -11,956.90
D	Juve	11	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	60.3195 60.2111 -0.1084	33.0372 32.9694 -0.0678	16.8811 16.8445 -0.0366	8.4875 8.4689 -0.0186	13,466,738.63 13,440,332.95 -26,405.68
	Atletico	7	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	43.7714 43.9038 0.1323	19.1447 19.1914 0.0467	7.6748 7.6903 0.0155	3.5405 3.5473 0.0067	8,310,123.10 8,332,456.38 22,333.28
E	Liverpool	15.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	76.5505 76.7337 0.1831	48.5554 48.6633 0.1079	29.3572 29.4213 0.0641	15.4520 15.4856 0.0336	19,426,926.34 19,471,247.15 44,320.80
	Napoli	6	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	43.2673 43.1014 -0.1659	17.2109 17.1428 -0.0681	6.2359 6.2114 -0.0245	2.7470 2.7362 -0.0108	7,749,789.57 7,719,710.38 -30,079.19
F	Barca	15.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	71.9895 72.0889 0.0993	45.6915 45.7458 0.0543	27.6456 27.6758 0.0301	14.5626 14.5778 0.0152	18,280,918.27 18,303,531.80 22,613.53
	BVB	4	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	29.8326 29.9007 0.0681	9.3234 9.3368 0.0135	2.5929 2.5954 0.0025	0.9737 0.9744 0.0007	4,713,187.73 4,722,382.85 9,195.12
G	Leipzig	2	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	26.0138 25.8636 -0.1502	4.7707 4.7435 -0.0272	0.7768 0.7723 -0.0045	0.1944 0.1933 -0.0012	3,435,033.89 3,415,243.14 -19,790.75
	Lyon	3	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	21.6121 21.5864 -0.0257	5.6426 5.6331 -0.0095	1.2969 1.2946 -0.0023	0.4245 0.4238 -0.0007	3,172,760.50 3,168,520.22 -4,240.28
H	Valencia	5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	55.3669 55.3716 0.0046	19.1725 19.1660 -0.0065	6.0515 6.0483 -0.0032	2.4858 2.4843 -0.0014	9,208,389.69 9,207,514.84 -874.85
	Chelsea	12.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	57.5001 57.4138 -0.0863	33.4704 33.4142 -0.0561	18.3509 18.3184 -0.0325	9.4004 9.3835 -0.0169	13,511,610.07 13,489,677.14 -21,932.93