Group	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
Winner	Napoli	Porto	Bayern	Tottenham	Chelsea	Real	Man City	Benfica
Runner-up	Liverpool	Club Brugge	Inter	Eintracht	Milan	Leipzig	BVB	PSG

• Runners-up are matched with group winners
• No matches allowed between teams from same association
• No matches allowed between teams from same group

These rules lead to 3876 possible results of the draw in 2022. Intuitive: Fair draw should give each result a chance of 1/3876 = 0.000258 = 0.0258%.
UEFA's draw mechanism is quite complicated, for a description see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270. At first glance, it appears to be fair, however: closer inspection shows that probabilities of UEFA's draw mechanism are slightly different, ranging from 0.018909% (approx. 1/5289) to 0.031101% (approx. 1/3215), corresponding to relative differences from -26.71% to 20.548%. Tableau with the smallest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/5289) is

Liverpool vs. Bayern Milan vs. Real

Club Brugge vs. Benfica Leipzig vs. Napoli

Inter vs. Chelsea BVB vs. Tottenham

Eintracht vs. Man City PSG vs. Porto

Tableau with the highest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/3215) is

Liverpool vs. Porto Milan vs. Man City

Club Brugge vs. Benfica Leipzig vs. Tottenham

Inter vs. Chelsea BVB vs. Real

Eintracht vs. Napoli PSG vs. Bayern

The draw procedure employed by UEFA also leads to the probabilities of pairwise matches being slightly different from their values under a perfectly fair draw.

Group	Team	Draw	Opponents ranked by decreasing probability
			Most probable	2nd most	3rd most	4th most	5th most	6th most	7th most
A	Napoli	Fair	BVB 22.2652	Eintracht 22.2652	Leipzig 21.4138	Club Brugge 17.0279	PSG 17.0279
		UEFA	BVB 22.2193	Eintracht 22.2193	Leipzig 21.3412	Club Brugge 17.1101	PSG 17.1101
	Liverpool	Fair	Bayern 39.8607	Real 20.6140	Benfica 19.7626	Porto 19.7626
		UEFA	Bayern 37.1212	Real 21.2812	Benfica 20.7988	Porto 20.7988
B	Porto	Fair	Liverpool 19.7626	Inter 14.4479	BVB 13.8287	Eintracht 13.8287	Milan 13.7255	Leipzig 13.2095	PSG 11.1971
		UEFA	Liverpool 20.7988	Inter 14.2229	BVB 13.7450	Eintracht 13.7450	Milan 13.3968	Leipzig 13.3048	PSG 10.7866
	Club Brugge	Fair	Bayern 18.1115	Napoli 17.0279	Man City 14.1899	Tottenham 14.1899	Chelsea 13.9319	Real 11.3519	Benfica 11.1971
		UEFA	Bayern 19.4641	Napoli 17.1101	Chelsea 13.9012	Man City 13.8776	Tottenham 13.8776	Real 10.9828	Benfica 10.7866
C	Bayern	Fair	Liverpool 39.8607	Milan 23.9164	Club Brugge 18.1115	PSG 18.1115
		UEFA	Liverpool 37.1212	Milan 23.9505	Club Brugge 19.4641	PSG 19.4641
	Inter	Fair	Man City 18.8854	Tottenham 18.8854	Chelsea 18.6791	Real 14.6543	Benfica 14.4479	Porto 14.4479
		UEFA	Chelsea 19.0770	Man City 18.8898	Tottenham 18.8898	Real 14.6976	Benfica 14.2229	Porto 14.2229
D	Tottenham	Fair	Inter 18.8854	BVB 18.0341	Leipzig 17.3891	Milan 17.3117	Club Brugge 14.1899	PSG 14.1899
		UEFA	Inter 18.8898	BVB 18.1436	Milan 17.8021	Leipzig 17.4094	Club Brugge 13.8776	PSG 13.8776
	Eintracht	Fair	Napoli 22.2652	Chelsea 18.0341	Man City 18.0341	Real 14.0093	Benfica 13.8287	Porto 13.8287
		UEFA	Napoli 22.2193	Man City 18.1436	Chelsea 17.9451	Real 14.2019	Benfica 13.7450	Porto 13.7450
E	Chelsea	Fair	Inter 18.6791	BVB 18.0341	Eintracht 18.0341	Leipzig 17.3891	Club Brugge 13.9319	PSG 13.9319
		UEFA	Inter 19.0770	BVB 17.9451	Eintracht 17.9451	Leipzig 17.2304	Club Brugge 13.9012	PSG 13.9012
	Milan	Fair	Bayern 23.9164	Man City 17.3117	Tottenham 17.3117	Real 14.0093	Benfica 13.7255	Porto 13.7255
		UEFA	Bayern 23.9505	Man City 17.8021	Tottenham 17.8021	Real 13.6517	Benfica 13.3968	Porto 13.3968
F	Real	Fair	Liverpool 20.6140	Inter 14.6543	BVB 14.0093	Eintracht 14.0093	Milan 14.0093	Club Brugge 11.3519	PSG 11.3519
		UEFA	Liverpool 21.2812	Inter 14.6976	BVB 14.2019	Eintracht 14.2019	Milan 13.6517	Club Brugge 10.9828	PSG 10.9828
	Leipzig	Fair	Napoli 21.4138	Chelsea 17.3891	Man City 17.3891	Tottenham 17.3891	Benfica 13.2095	Porto 13.2095
		UEFA	Napoli 21.3412	Man City 17.4094	Tottenham 17.4094	Chelsea 17.2304	Benfica 13.3048	Porto 13.3048
G	Man City	Fair	Inter 18.8854	Eintracht 18.0341	Leipzig 17.3891	Milan 17.3117	Club Brugge 14.1899	PSG 14.1899
		UEFA	Inter 18.8898	Eintracht 18.1436	Milan 17.8021	Leipzig 17.4094	Club Brugge 13.8776	PSG 13.8776
	BVB	Fair	Napoli 22.2652	Chelsea 18.0341	Tottenham 18.0341	Real 14.0093	Benfica 13.8287	Porto 13.8287
		UEFA	Napoli 22.2193	Tottenham 18.1436	Chelsea 17.9451	Real 14.2019	Benfica 13.7450	Porto 13.7450
H	Benfica	Fair	Liverpool 19.7626	Inter 14.4479	BVB 13.8287	Eintracht 13.8287	Milan 13.7255	Leipzig 13.2095	Club Brugge 11.1971
		UEFA	Liverpool 20.7988	Inter 14.2229	BVB 13.7450	Eintracht 13.7450	Milan 13.3968	Leipzig 13.3048	Club Brugge 10.7866
	PSG	Fair	Bayern 18.1115	Napoli 17.0279	Man City 14.1899	Tottenham 14.1899	Chelsea 13.9319	Real 11.3519	Porto 11.1971
		UEFA	Bayern 19.4641	Napoli 17.1101	Chelsea 13.9012	Man City 13.8776	Tottenham 13.8776	Real 10.9828	Porto 10.7866

Teams get the following awards for reaching certain stages:

• reaching quarter-final is awarded with EUR 10.6 million
• reaching semi-final is awarded with additional EUR 12.5 million
• reaching final is awarded with additional EUR 15.5 million
• winning trophy is awarded with additional EUR 8 million (including award for UEFA Super Cup qualification)

Under a simple model (for details, see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270), with strengths being determined by weighted averages of team's UEFA coefficients of the last three years, this leads to the following expected payoffs and probabilities of reaching certain stages:

Group	Team	Strength	Draw	Probablity of reaching ... (in percent)				Exp. Payoff (EUR)
				quarter-final	semi-final	final	trophy
A	Napoli	4	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	38.9039 38.9177 0.0138	12.1560 12.1597 0.0038	3.3691 3.3690 -0.0001	1.2622 1.2619 -0.0003	6,266,492.87 6,268,387.18 1,894.31
	Liverpool	16	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	58.5418 58.8073 0.2655	38.1825 38.3435 0.1610	23.6995 23.7879 0.0884	12.6150 12.6590 0.0440	15,660,872.62 15,726,357.69 65,485.07
B	Porto	7	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	50.4398 50.1459 -0.2939	22.3793 22.2542 -0.1251	9.0122 8.9621 -0.0501	4.1635 4.1404 -0.0231	9,873,995.21 9,817,588.91 -56,406.30
	Club Brugge	2.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	24.8878 24.7767 -0.1111	5.6355 5.6135 -0.0220	1.1262 1.1218 -0.0043	0.3313 0.3300 -0.0013	3,543,603.38 3,528,300.99 -15,302.39
C	Bayern	14	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	66.4333 67.0920 0.6587	41.1233 41.5129 0.3895	24.1098 24.3233 0.2135	12.5780 12.6871 0.1091	16,925,611.47 17,085,938.46 160,326.99
	Inter	6	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	41.6670 41.6294 -0.0376	16.9547 16.9383 -0.0164	6.2437 6.2362 -0.0075	2.7596 2.7559 -0.0037	7,724,578.30 7,717,093.71 -7,484.59
D	Tottenham	2.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	37.7943 37.9732 0.1789	8.1862 8.2211 0.0349	1.5931 1.5992 0.0061	0.4627 0.4643 0.0017	5,313,405.87 5,337,820.37 24,414.49
	Eintracht	9	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	49.9662 49.9295 -0.0367	25.3457 25.3244 -0.0213	11.8257 11.8130 -0.0127	5.7778 5.7713 -0.0066	10,759,841.43 10,750,795.75 -9,045.69
E	Chelsea	12	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	64.7199 64.7350 0.0151	37.3415 37.3455 0.0039	20.1162 20.1129 -0.0033	10.2520 10.2499 -0.0021	15,466,171.00 15,467,578.99 1,407.99
	Milan	1	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	11.5867 11.6633 0.0765	1.2682 1.2749 0.0067	0.1197 0.1202 0.0005	0.0183 0.0184 0.0001	1,406,740.03 1,415,774.40 9,034.37
F	Real	13	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	66.3420 66.0821 -0.2599	39.7397 39.5802 -0.1595	22.3883 22.2934 -0.0950	11.5441 11.4947 -0.0494	16,393,423.87 16,327,279.17 -66,144.70
	Leipzig	8	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	53.4446 53.4485 0.0039	25.3162 25.3139 -0.0023	10.9919 10.9873 -0.0046	5.2399 5.2372 -0.0027	10,952,596.89 10,951,797.34 -799.55
G	Man City	15	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	72.6805 72.7772 0.0967	46.0833 46.1399 0.0566	27.7131 27.7417 0.0285	14.5642 14.5784 0.0142	18,925,221.21 18,948,107.50 22,886.29
	BVB	5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	43.9594 43.9715 0.0121	15.8046 15.8062 0.0016	5.1121 5.1109 -0.0012	2.1125 2.1116 -0.0009	7,596,658.56 7,597,872.93 1,214.37
H	Benfica	10	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	61.9023 61.4862 -0.4161	32.9200 32.7008 -0.2192	16.2029 16.0943 -0.1086	8.0582 8.0044 -0.0538	13,832,745.90 13,740,105.48 -92,640.41
	PSG	11	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	56.7304 56.5646 -0.1658	31.5633 31.4711 -0.0922	16.3765 16.3267 -0.0498	8.2606 8.2354 -0.0252	13,158,041.40 13,119,201.15 -38,840.25