Group	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
Winner	Bayern	Real	ManC	Liverpool	Chelsea	BVB	Juve	PSG
Runner-up	Atletico	Gladbach	Porto	Atalanta	Sevilla	Lazio	Barca	Leipzig

• Runners-up are matched with group winners
• No matches allowed between teams from same association
• No matches allowed between teams from same group

These rules lead to 3305 possible results of the draw in 2020. Intuitive: Fair draw should give each result a chance of 1/3305 = 0.00030257 = 0.030257%.
UEFA's draw mechanism is quite complicated, for a description see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270. At first glance, it appears to be fair, however: closer inspection shows that probabilities of UEFA's draw mechanism are slightly different, ranging from 0.02393% (approx. 1/4179) to 0.037897% (approx. 1/2639), corresponding to relative differences from -20.912% to 25.25%. Tableau with the smallest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/4179) is

Atletico vs. PSG Sevilla vs. ManC

Gladbach vs. Juve Lazio vs. Real

Porto vs. Chelsea Barca vs. BVB

Atalanta vs. Bayern Leipzig vs. Liverpool

Tableau with the highest probability of being drawn by UEFA (approx. 1/2639) is

Atletico vs. BVB Sevilla vs. Bayern

Gladbach vs. Juve Lazio vs. PSG

Porto vs. Real Barca vs. Chelsea

Atalanta vs. ManC Leipzig vs. Liverpool

The draw procedure employed by UEFA also leads to the probabilities of pairwise matches being slightly different from their values under a perfectly fair draw.

Group	Team	Draw	Opponents ranked by decreasing probability
			Most probable	2nd most	3rd most	4th most	5th most	6th most	7th most
A	Bayern	Fair	Barca 22.1180	Lazio 20.8472	Sevilla 20.7262	Atalanta 19.7579	Porto 16.5507
		UEFA	Barca 22.2346	Sevilla 21.1706	Lazio 20.9513	Atalanta 19.2189	Porto 16.4246
	Atletico	Fair	BVB 22.1180	Juve 19.8790	PSG 14.9168	Chelsea 14.4932	Liverpool 14.4327	ManC 14.1604
		UEFA	BVB 22.8021	Juve 19.7063	PSG 14.8061	Chelsea 14.4759	Liverpool 14.2281	ManC 13.9814
B	Real	Fair	Leipzig 30.9228	Lazio 25.6884	Atalanta 23.4191	Porto 19.9697
		UEFA	Leipzig 30.4711	Lazio 25.3552	Atalanta 23.7020	Porto 20.4717
	Gladbach	Fair	Juve 26.1120	PSG 18.8805	Chelsea 18.4871	Liverpool 18.4871	ManC 18.0333
		UEFA	Juve 25.5756	PSG 19.3792	Chelsea 18.6233	Liverpool 18.3807	ManC 18.0411
C	ManC	Fair	Gladbach 18.0333	Leipzig 15.5825	Atletico 14.1604	Barca 13.6762	Sevilla 13.1619	Lazio 13.0711	Atalanta 12.3147
		UEFA	Gladbach 18.0411	Leipzig 15.7394	Atletico 13.9814	Barca 13.6762	Sevilla 13.0845	Lazio 13.0744	Atalanta 12.4029
	Porto	Fair	Real 19.9697	Bayern 16.5507	BVB 16.2179	Juve 14.4932	PSG 11.1346	Chelsea 10.8623	Liverpool 10.7716
		UEFA	Real 20.4717	Bayern 16.4246	BVB 16.1845	Juve 14.6762	PSG 10.9484	Chelsea 10.6666	Liverpool 10.6280
D	Liverpool	Fair	Gladbach 18.4871	Leipzig 15.7943	Atletico 14.4327	Barca 13.8578	Sevilla 13.3737	Lazio 13.2829	Porto 10.7716
		UEFA	Gladbach 18.3807	Leipzig 15.9883	Atletico 14.2281	Barca 14.0377	Lazio 13.4337	Sevilla 13.3034	Porto 10.6280
	Atalanta	Fair	Real 23.4191	Bayern 19.7579	BVB 19.0015	PSG 12.8896	Chelsea 12.6172	ManC 12.3147
		UEFA	Real 23.7020	Bayern 19.2189	BVB 19.0623	PSG 12.9632	Chelsea 12.6507	ManC 12.4029
E	Chelsea	Fair	Gladbach 18.4871	Leipzig 16.1271	Atletico 14.4932	Barca 13.9486	Lazio 13.4644	Atalanta 12.6172	Porto 10.8623
		UEFA	Gladbach 18.6233	Leipzig 16.0783	Atletico 14.4759	Barca 14.1553	Lazio 13.3499	Atalanta 12.6507	Porto 10.6666
	Sevilla	Fair	BVB 20.8169	Bayern 20.7262	Juve 17.9425	PSG 13.9788	Liverpool 13.3737	ManC 13.1619
		UEFA	Bayern 21.1706	BVB 20.4004	Juve 18.3191	PSG 13.7220	Liverpool 13.3034	ManC 13.0845
F	BVB	Fair	Atletico 22.1180	Barca 21.8457	Sevilla 20.8169	Atalanta 19.0015	Porto 16.2179
		UEFA	Atletico 22.8021	Barca 21.5507	Sevilla 20.4004	Atalanta 19.0623	Porto 16.1845
	Lazio	Fair	Real 25.6884	Bayern 20.8472	PSG 13.6460	Chelsea 13.4644	Liverpool 13.2829	ManC 13.0711
		UEFA	Real 25.3552	Bayern 20.9513	PSG 13.8355	Liverpool 13.4337	Chelsea 13.3499	ManC 13.0744
G	Juve	Fair	Gladbach 26.1120	Leipzig 21.5734	Atletico 19.8790	Sevilla 17.9425	Porto 14.4932
		UEFA	Gladbach 25.5756	Leipzig 21.7228	Atletico 19.7063	Sevilla 18.3191	Porto 14.6762
	Barca	Fair	Bayern 22.1180	BVB 21.8457	PSG 14.5537	Chelsea 13.9486	Liverpool 13.8578	ManC 13.6762
		UEFA	Bayern 22.2346	BVB 21.5507	PSG 14.3455	Chelsea 14.1553	Liverpool 14.0377	ManC 13.6762
H	PSG	Fair	Gladbach 18.8805	Atletico 14.9168	Barca 14.5537	Sevilla 13.9788	Lazio 13.6460	Atalanta 12.8896	Porto 11.1346
		UEFA	Gladbach 19.3792	Atletico 14.8061	Barca 14.3455	Lazio 13.8355	Sevilla 13.7220	Atalanta 12.9632	Porto 10.9484
	Leipzig	Fair	Real 30.9228	Juve 21.5734	Chelsea 16.1271	Liverpool 15.7943	ManC 15.5825
		UEFA	Real 30.4711	Juve 21.7228	Chelsea 16.0783	Liverpool 15.9883	ManC 15.7394

Teams get the following awards for reaching certain stages:

• reaching quarter-final is awarded with EUR 10.5 million
• reaching semi-final is awarded with additional EUR 12 million
• reaching final is awarded with additional EUR 15 million
• winning trophy is awarded with additional EUR 7.5 million (including award for UEFA Super Cup qualification)

Under a simple model (for details, see Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (2013), 9(3), 249-270), with strengths being determined by weighted averages of team's UEFA coefficients of the last three years, this leads to the following expected payoffs and probabilities of reaching certain stages:

Group	Team	Strength	Draw	Probablity of reaching ... (in percent)				Exp. Payoff (EUR)
				quarter-final	semi-final	final	trophy
A	Bayern	16	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	72.8822 72.7773 -0.1049	46.5631 46.5002 -0.0629	28.5596 28.5228 -0.0368	15.1083 15.0893 -0.0189	18,657,258.65 18,631,759.78 -25,498.87
	Atletico	8	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	44.0080 44.1233 0.1153	20.5441 20.5966 0.0525	8.8625 8.8842 0.0217	4.2184 4.2287 0.0103	8,731,894.92 8,754,320.90 22,425.98
B	Real	5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	56.7250 56.7697 0.0447	19.1961 19.2126 0.0165	6.0183 6.0238 0.0056	2.4741 2.4765 0.0024	9,347,959.66 9,355,648.23 7,688.57
	Gladbach	1	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	7.8219 7.8180 -0.0039	0.8631 0.8629 -0.0002	0.0817 0.0817 0.0000	0.0125 0.0125 0.0000	938,071.08 937,636.59 -434.49
C	ManC	14.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	72.4334 72.4566 0.0232	44.5057 44.5239 0.0182	26.0854 26.0977 0.0124	13.5909 13.5977 0.0067	17,878,309.63 17,885,281.45 6,971.82
	Porto	3	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	25.4071 25.4896 0.0825	6.3382 6.3566 0.0183	1.4208 1.4246 0.0038	0.4604 0.4616 0.0012	3,675,985.19 3,687,506.75 11,521.56
D	Liverpool	9.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	64.9864 64.9424 -0.0440	32.8002 32.7829 -0.0173	15.4634 15.4570 -0.0064	7.6032 7.6002 -0.0030	13,649,353.65 13,641,466.43 -7,887.22
	Atalanta	4	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	31.0207 31.1083 0.0876	9.4431 9.4678 0.0247	2.6088 2.6151 0.0063	0.9823 0.9846 0.0023	4,855,349.83 4,868,621.36 13,271.53
E	Chelsea	11	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	70.3901 70.3381 -0.0520	38.1631 38.1413 -0.0218	19.4628 19.4542 -0.0086	9.7822 9.7782 -0.0040	15,623,627.16 15,613,952.51 -9,674.65
	Sevilla	9.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	46.2073 46.1098 -0.0975	23.6055 23.5618 -0.0437	11.2504 11.2324 -0.0180	5.5448 5.5363 -0.0085	9,787,839.37 9,769,023.27 -18,816.10
F	BVB	6	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	46.1440 46.2038 0.0598	18.0473 18.0706 0.0233	6.4764 6.4843 0.0080	2.8481 2.8516 0.0034	8,195,861.60 8,206,390.20 10,528.60
	Lazio	2	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	17.4413 17.3919 -0.0493	3.2372 3.2305 -0.0066	0.5350 0.5341 -0.0008	0.1358 0.1356 -0.0002	2,310,223.56 2,304,106.61 -6,116.95
G	Juve	12	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	71.2650 71.1173 -0.1477	40.2733 40.1935 -0.0797	21.4725 21.4308 -0.0417	10.9166 10.8955 -0.0211	16,355,237.22 16,322,314.67 -32,922.55
	Barca	14.5	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	56.7828 56.7460 -0.0368	34.9938 34.9751 -0.0187	20.5580 20.5489 -0.0091	10.7239 10.7195 -0.0043	14,049,436.71 14,041,643.30 -7,793.42
H	PSG	13	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	72.4528 72.6699 0.2171	42.4794 42.6111 0.1317	23.6286 23.7042 0.0756	12.1379 12.1771 0.0392	17,159,702.82 17,212,579.28 52,876.46
	Leipzig	7	Fair UEFA UEFA-Fair	44.0320 43.9380 -0.0940	18.9468 18.9126 -0.0342	7.5158 7.5040 -0.0118	3.4605 3.4552 -0.0053	8,283,888.95 8,267,748.67 -16,140.28